Interesting post from the forums about how points are accrued at different rates:
Quick disclaimer: this is NOT a discussion on whether the new system is good or bad. Please find the other 500 threads. This thread is how Conquest Points are earned. This data was mined by /u/Zobtzler on reddit. All credit goes to him.
HOW TO WIN (AND COME BACK) IN NEW CONQUEST - 3 image album
FIRST IMAGE: Self explanatory. How many Conquest Points your team gets, depending on how many flags you own in 10-second intervals. Conquest Points are the team points, that go to 300. I've written in Points per second, instead of seconds per Point. Read /u/zobtzler's post for the data pulled from the game files. I've rounded to the nearest tenth to make it more readable.
SECOND IMAGE: The NET Point gain if you have a majority of flags. It's simple: [your Point rate] - [enemy Point rate] = net gain. Remember: both teams earn Points. If you hold 4 flags to 3 flags, you get 1.8 Points per 10 seconds AND they get 1.4 Points per 10 seconds. What is the net gain for your team with 4 flags in 10 seconds? +0.4 Points per 10 seconds. Over a minute of holding 4-3, you'll get a 2.4 Point lead (0.4 x 6 because six 10-second intervals).
THIRD IMAGE: Most games are 4 flags to 3 flags, accruing a very slow +2.4 Point differential per minute. So how do teams get 5 to 10 Point differences within the two minutes?! It's because the NET gain is massive if the other team has no flags. A 2-0 cap earns 3x the net Points per 10 seconds versus a 4-3 cap.
A few obvious conclusions for people who can't read graphs or are otherwise mathematically illiterate:
to win and/or comeback, your team MUST hold more flags for longer than the enemy team. Can't do that? Your team doesn't deserve to win. Full stop. Maybe your team should've been looking at the Point counter early; you both started at 0. You both have the same map and the same vehicles. Y'all messed up early.
re-read that when you lose a round. Mathematically, if you lost, it's because the enemy team PTFO'd more than your team. They deserve to win.
every flag capture requires PTFOing. PTFOing is rewarded: thus, any flag you cap is always giving your team Points until the enemy team PTFOs and takes it back.
BUT, that applies to your enemy, too. Don't like the enemy team getting Points for a flag? Take it back, then. They PTFO'd, so they get Points.
Comebacks and wins are awarded to teams who CONQUER the map over time. This is map control, not "51% of the map" control.
Just stare at the Conquest Points vs flags bar at the top; for just one round, pay strict attention. You will see how PERFECTLY Points correlate with flags. No ifs, ands, buts. If you can't PTFO for longer, you don't deserve the win. Full stop.
Big leads are harder to get (all enemy flags give Points) and big comebacks are harder (all enemy flags give Points). No, you don't deserve a comeback for 4-3 capping the enemy team in the last 5 minutes while they capped you 5-2 for 25 minutes.
A few strategies that I've seen used effectively:
Early flag caps are extremely powerful. Most other players don't understand how fast Points accrue. If you can get a few seconds of 1-0 flags or 2-0 flags, you'll accrue Points faster than 4-3! Thus, the team that caps its gimmees faster can get a HUGE early lead. Don't skip your gimmees, dudes!
5-2 and 6-1 caps are EXTREMELY powerful. A 7-0 cap is just ungodly (DICE has no mercy). Look at this: a 5-2 cap is 3.25x FASTER in net Points than 4-3 and a 6-1 cap is 7X FASTER in net Points than 4-3. So, push for that 5th flag if you can. HUGE boost. But, on the flip side, if you're at 3-4....giving up ONE more flag will hurt.
Stay ON the flags! Every enemy flag, at every second, is giving Points to them and every friendly flag, at every second, is giving Points to you. Every moment you're not DIRECTLY attacking / defending flags: this is where y'all are losing games. I love reading in chat, "Wow, how are we down -15 Points already?" Those people stopped looking at flags, lol.
You can do the math yourself. If you want to get a safe +15 lead over the enemy team, the "basic" strategy is to hold 4-3 for 6+ minutes---way too long. IMO, the best way to win is to PUSH hard in the beginning when the other team is still figuring everything out. So, a better way to get a +15 lead: cap gimmees VERY fast (this should give you a +2-3 Point lead) and then hold 5-2 for just 2 minutes. That's enough for +15 points. Get aggressive.
Thus, comebacks are the same! If the enemy team ever 5-2 capped us, that means we're going to need to 5-2 cap them, depending on time! Read that again: if they 5-2 cap you, you need to 5-2 cap them back IF you want a comeback. Critical, critical, critical Point. We need to EQUALIZE their accomplishments.